Dags att bli orolig?

[David]

Pessimist som jag är får jag alltid ont i magen av The Economists artiklar. Läs och begrunda den senaste i raden av artiklar som tittar på fastighetspriser. Vad tror ni om villamarknaden i Sverige? Det fanns en tabell också som placerade Sverige i mitten av boendeprisökningsligan.

Homing in on trouble

Sell, sell, sell

HOUSING markets in many countries are hotting up again, according to The Economist's latest quarterly update of its global house-price indicators. After earlier signs of a slowdown, markets have accelerated in several countries, leaving prices looking even more overvalued.

The prices of American homes rose by an annual rate of 15.5% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace for almost a quarter of a century, lifting the 12-month rate of increase to 8% from 5.9% in the third quarter. Australian house prices rose at their fastest rate in almost 15 years in the last three months of 2003. They were 18.9% higher than a year ago, the biggest rise in our table. Prices have also accelerated in France and Italy in the past year and are now rising even faster than in Britain. Our British index has changed: we are now using the series published by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Its 12-month rate of increase has fallen from 25% at the end of 2002 to almost 10% in January. Even so, prices have spurted in recent months.

House prices are at record levels in relation to average income in America, Australia, Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The prices of British, Irish and Dutch homes are now 50% above their 30-year average relative to incomes. By the same gauge, property is “overvalued” by 23% in America, by 33% in Australia, and by 68% in Spain.

The main reason why house prices have been rising so rapidly in so many countries is the historically low level of interest rates, which has allowed households to borrow more to buy a home. The worry is that what started as a rational adjustment to lower interest rates has turned into irrational exuberance.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS, the so-called central bankers' central bank) is keeping a close eye on the housing market. After stockmarkets tumbled, the boom in house prices helped to support spending by boosting household wealth. If prices went into reverse the world economy could be in big trouble.

The BIS's latest Quarterly Review includes a collection of papers analysing housing markets around the world. Claudio Borio and Patrick McGuire, two BIS economists, have analysed the relationship between booms and busts in equity and house prices in 13 countries over 30 years. In the past, housing markets tended to peak an average of two years after stockmarkets. It is thus unusual that four years after the peak in share prices, home prices continue to boom. The BIS suggests that this is mainly because interest rates are unusually low.

In the past, lower interest rates have only postponed house-price busts. If interest rates stay low, house prices could continue to rise for some time. But are there any clues as to how far they might eventually fall? The authors draw two conclusions from past experience. The bigger the boom in property prices, the bigger the bust. And the bigger the increase in debt accompanying the boom, the more that real house prices fall. It is ominous, therefore, that many countries have seen a much bigger rise in real house prices than in previous cycles, and that debt has increased more sharply.

Another paper in the Quarterly Review cautions that when periods of high inflation are followed by a sharp fall in inflation and hence interest rates, this may well breed misalignments in house prices from their long-term fundamental values. Translated out of BIS-speak, the central bankers seem to be worried.

 

[cyanna]

kanske....
Jag ser två delar i denna frågan:
1. Kommer vi att ha råd att bo kvar i våra nybyggda/nyköpta hus. Det är väldigt individuell vilka marginaler man har när allt är betald. Jag kör min egen statistik över det hela och räntorna idag ligger ca 1,5% under snittet för dem senaste 5 åren och 2,5 % under max räntorna under samma period. Längre än så är det nog rätt så svårt att göra några prognoser i alla fall, tycker jag
2. Vad kommer vi att få för huset när det blir dags att sälja: två år framåt är det nog väldigt liten risk att värdet minskar speciellt mkt, marknaden tar tid att anpassa sig. Tre till fem år KAN vara en risk för värdeminskning, speciellt om läget för huset inte är i sig prisvärt (storstad, växande område....)

Till sist, "experter" har ofta fel. Tänk bara på alla råd man fick i somras om att binda räntorna för att nu blir det inte lägre än så, eller skrämsel propagandan om att dem kommer att skjuta upp i höjden i fall inte Sverige går med i valuta unionen. 5 och 10 åriga räntor ligger på samma nivå nu som vid "botten" noteringen i juni 03, 2 år och rörliga räntor är tom något lägre.
Slutsats: det är ändå mindre riskabelt att investera i ett hus än i aktier och dylikt. Tycker jag. Så vi bygger så det knackar... ;D